After carefully analyzing and running through few of my journalist friends, I can surely say that, in order to restrain BJP making quick moves to form the government, Indian National Congress need to cross 120 seats at any cost. As the stakes are very high, knowing BJP will be the single largest party; President of India will be inviting BJP to form the government before giving a chance to prove the strength in the house. So, when will Congress party pass 120 seats mark? It's possible when Congress hits the double-digit figure in 4 states which are Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Kerala.
Things are slightly in favour of ruling BJP in the country at the moment. Poll data (unofficial) suggests that BJP may cross 200 to settle between 200-210, which makes BJP the single largest party. But even in this case, NDA may fall short of 35 seats (give or take ten seats). As the Southern part of Vindhyas may see a strong regional parties presence, NDA may need Naveen Patnayak on their side definitely, which by the way looks possible.
Let us know the three big X-factors of 2019 Lok Sabha elections:
How well SP-BSP will stall the saffron surge in Uttar Pradesh will impact the national equations in a big way. If BJP takes home a chunk of 40-45, it will make their way less easy.
Can TMC hold the bastion of Bengal by winning 30-35 seats? If Mamata makes it to 30+, that will restrict BJP’s possible gains in the Eastern region.
Another big question before us is, whether BJP manages to perform well in Odisha or not. BJP needs to take ten seats from this state. Otherwise, it will be a hard bargain with BJD chief.
The narrative of 'Who will be the next Prime Minister to India' will depend on these three factors primarily. So, folks don’t forget to look out for these factors on the day of results.
Pre-exit polls prediction:
I’m sticking my neck out and predicting NDA will fall short of 35+ seats, which will make a way to the united opposition to form the government with PM from either of them and deputy PM hailing from south. Remember it is just an assumption; I may be terribly wrong too. One thing is for sure; this is not a black-swan election, 23rd of May surprise many of us, no matter what exit poll surveys state.
A TIP from the ground source, “When it rains it pours” this is the story of Uttar Pradesh in 2019, watch out for the result.
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